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Post by surefire on Sept 1, 2008 23:19:02 GMT -5
Fox News reported on a poll today that has Obama up 49% to 42%
A gap over 5% seems very large... McCain may not recover.
Of course, if the poll is wrong, or has a high degree of error, I guess anything can happen.
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Post by The Big Dog on Sept 1, 2008 23:59:27 GMT -5
That would have been the Gallup poll of "registered voters". It has an upward curve over the past week during the Democrat convention, and just before the convention this same poll had McCain ahead or running in a dead heat. The sampling error is +/- 2 points.
There are, however, a bunch of polls showing it much closer.
Rasmussen's "likely voter" survey, for instance shows it 49-46 in favor of Obama coming off the minimal convention bounce that Obama got (and he should have got a lot more but didn't). CNN's register voter poll (a very small sample) has it at 49-48 Obama in front, but razor thin.
I'm looking forward to seeing Zogby's numbers this week. He and Scott Rasmussen have shown to be the most reliable numbers over the last few cycles. Zogby's mid-August poll of likely voters for Reuters had McCain up by 5, and it should be interesting to see what happens coming out of the Republican convention.
In short, right now it's a horse race.
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Post by The Big Dog on Sept 2, 2008 0:00:42 GMT -5
By the way... if you are a mathhead or a complete political junkie (like me) you can see a full compilation of polling at Real Clear Politics. |
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