Post by bolverk on Sept 9, 2008 16:53:49 GMT -5
SMART itself is estimated at $440 million dollars. Since on average all public transportation rail systems ever built in the United States have had an average cost over run of 45%, you can just say that SMART will cost approximately an additional $198 million, or $638 million dollars, just for the system.
But wait, they want to build a trail for pedestrians and bikes. Bikes will be the losers of course, because bikes and pedestrians do not seem to be able to share a trail. But, that aside, the trail is estimated at $90 million. But, that pesky 45% must still be added in, so it is another $40.5 million right there, or $135.5 million in addition to the $638 million.
OK, adding the two together, we get $773.5 million just to get SMART built. That is a lot more then the original costs. Why do these folks follow the example of Shinji Sogo, the rail road tycoon of Japan who cut his actual cost estimates in half when he presented his figures. Even his subordinates asked him why. His answer, when the rail road is half built, they will have to give us more money to complete it. America learned fast. BART estimates have even been as low as one third of the final cost.
Why should SMART be any different? It won't, you can bet your bottom dollar on that. Those costs will be borne by the tax payers, who are being duped, not only by SMART, but by citizens who support the rail without any idea of it's potential cost over runs. Since there has never been a system of public rail built in this country that did not exceed costs estimates, the only question becomes, "how much will SMART exceed estimates by?" The average is 45%, BART has often been by as much as 67%. The "Big Dig" in Boston costs were nearly double what the estimates were, and the project was behind schedule. But the Massachusetts legislators still got their donations, to the tune of $225,000.
No, SMART is a money pit. History proves it. These projects are designed that way, so when the public commits, they are committed to the point where they have to pay for all the over runs that always come. Can we afford an additional 45% above the estimated costs? I don't think so. We can barely afford the estimated costs. And none of this takes the subsidies into consideration. For once, let us learn from history, and how Shinji Sogo and other public transportation entities have stuck it to the people.
But wait, they want to build a trail for pedestrians and bikes. Bikes will be the losers of course, because bikes and pedestrians do not seem to be able to share a trail. But, that aside, the trail is estimated at $90 million. But, that pesky 45% must still be added in, so it is another $40.5 million right there, or $135.5 million in addition to the $638 million.
OK, adding the two together, we get $773.5 million just to get SMART built. That is a lot more then the original costs. Why do these folks follow the example of Shinji Sogo, the rail road tycoon of Japan who cut his actual cost estimates in half when he presented his figures. Even his subordinates asked him why. His answer, when the rail road is half built, they will have to give us more money to complete it. America learned fast. BART estimates have even been as low as one third of the final cost.
Why should SMART be any different? It won't, you can bet your bottom dollar on that. Those costs will be borne by the tax payers, who are being duped, not only by SMART, but by citizens who support the rail without any idea of it's potential cost over runs. Since there has never been a system of public rail built in this country that did not exceed costs estimates, the only question becomes, "how much will SMART exceed estimates by?" The average is 45%, BART has often been by as much as 67%. The "Big Dig" in Boston costs were nearly double what the estimates were, and the project was behind schedule. But the Massachusetts legislators still got their donations, to the tune of $225,000.
No, SMART is a money pit. History proves it. These projects are designed that way, so when the public commits, they are committed to the point where they have to pay for all the over runs that always come. Can we afford an additional 45% above the estimated costs? I don't think so. We can barely afford the estimated costs. And none of this takes the subsidies into consideration. For once, let us learn from history, and how Shinji Sogo and other public transportation entities have stuck it to the people.
